Slower, not lower
Fewer homes are changing hands, but values keep rising. Data released by Statistics Portugal (INE) on 22 September show the market slowing, without a general fall in prices. Between April and June, 40,142 homes were sold — the third consecutive quarter with fewer sales than a year earlier. Price growth also lost pace: annual growth went from 17.8% in the first quarter to 16.5% in the second. Compared with the first three months of the year, prices still rose 3.6%. Slowing down, in this case, means rising less quickly.
Lisbon is losing pace too
The regional picture adds an important difference: the slowdown is not equally intense across the country. According to Confidencial Imobiliário data released by ASMIP, in 210 of the 278 municipalities of mainland Portugal, year-on-year price growth in the second quarter was lower than at the end of 2025. In Lisbon, it went from 18.2% to 11.1%. These indicators use their own methodology and should be read separately from INE data. They do, however, help explain why a national trend is not enough to value a specific home.
For sellers, pricing needs a close reading
A national rise of 16.5% does not mean every property has appreciated by that amount, nor that the percentage can be added to a previous valuation. Positioning a home starts with comparing similar properties and actual transaction values in the area. Competing supply also matters, as do condition, build quality, sun exposure, floor level, and whether there is a lift, parking or outdoor space. Once the property is on the market, the analysis continues. Are viewings happening? Which objections keep coming up? Are there offers? On what terms? How the market responds deserves as much attention as the initial asking price. A single viewing says little; a consistent pattern of feedback and offers supports better-informed decisions.
For buyers, fewer sales do not guarantee discounts
Fewer transactions may raise expectations of greater negotiating room. That room, however, depends on the property, the asking price, the seller's circumstances and competition between buyers. Before making an offer, compare real alternatives and, where possible, recent sales of similar homes. A property needing works should be assessed on the total investment required, including purchase costs. Financing should keep pace with the decision too: a simulation done at the start of the search may no longer reflect the conditions available when the right home appears. Our view is that this context calls for well-grounded offers and an up-to-date budget. The national headline helps understand the moment; the analysis of the property is what supports the decision.
What these numbers do not yet tell us
The data describe transactions completed between April and June. They are an important reference, but do not, on their own, show how demand is responding today on a given street or in a given price segment. Nor do they allow the conclusion that fewer sales will necessarily lead to falling prices in the coming months. For anyone considering selling or buying, the useful step is to bring the analysis closer to the decision itself: the area, the building, the home, the alternatives and the available budget.
Considering selling or moving home? The Valle Real Estate Group team can help you read the market in the area where you want to sell or live.
Talk to usSources: INE, Housing Price Index — Q2 2026, released on 22 September 2026; ASMIP, “House prices slow in three quarters of Portugal's municipalities”, published on 24 September 2026, based on Confidencial Imobiliário indicators.
